Burnham would ‘probably’ have won by-election, says Powell

Lucy Powell has broken ranks to admit what many in Labour already knew: the party's decision to block Andy Burnham from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election was a catastrophic misjudgement. The admission, made on the BBC's Newscast podcast, comes after Labour slumped to third place in what was meant to be one of its safest seats, handing the Greens a parliamentary victory and Reform UK second place.

The deputy leader's concession is more than just political hindsight. Powell was the sole NEC member who voted to allow the Greater Manchester mayor to stand, outnumbered 8-1 by Starmer's inner circle who feared triggering a mayoral by-election. That she now feels compelled to go public with her assessment that Burnham "probably would have" held the seat speaks volumes about the frustration brewing inside the party.

What makes this particularly pointed is Powell's careful invocation of "collective responsibility" for the original decision, even as she undermines it. This is the language of someone who wants credit for being right whilst maintaining enough plausible deniability to survive in the current regime.

A pattern, not a protest

This marks Labour's fifth parliamentary by-election loss since taking power last summer. That's not a fluke or a protest vote, despite the frantic spin emerging from party sources. The electorate is delivering a consistent verdict on Starmer's government, and the leadership's response has been to double down on centralised control whilst publicly disagreeing about what the results actually mean.

The electorate is delivering a consistent verdict on Starmer's government, and the leadership's response has been to double down on centralised control whilst publicly disagreeing about what the results actually mean.

According to the 2021 census, Gorton and Denton has a Muslim population of approximately 20 per cent, making it a significant electoral factor in a constituency where Labour previously enjoyed a majority of over 11,000. The Greens ran hard on Gaza and environmental issues, whilst Reform capitalised on immigration concerns. Labour, caught between these forces and lacking a candidate with Burnham's regional appeal, was crushed.

The strategic error here wasn't just about candidate selection. The NEC's 8-1 decision revealed how Starmer's team operates: centralised, cautious about anything that might generate negative headlines, and ultimately willing to sacrifice a safe seat rather than risk a complication elsewhere. They got their wish. No messy mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, just a humiliating loss to the Greens and a strengthened Reform UK.

The ideological divide emerges

Powell's intervention becomes more significant when set against the emerging factional response within the cabinet. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to use the introduction of tougher immigration legislation next week as an opportunity to warn against any leftward shift in response to the by-election defeat.

A source close to Mahmood told The Times that "the idea that we are losing Muslim voters over immigration is just plain wrong." This is spin so transparent it's almost insulting. Gorton and Denton's demographics and the Green Party's campaign focus make it abundantly clear that Gaza, immigration policy, and disillusionment with Labour's rightward drift on social issues all played a role.

They're pre-emptively defending a hardline approach by denying what the by-election result clearly demonstrated: Labour is hemorrhaging voters on multiple flanks, and the government's response is to shore up one flank whilst insisting the others don't exist.

That Mahmood's camp felt the need to brief this ahead of the immigration legislation tells you they know the optics are terrible. They're pre-emptively defending a hardline approach by denying what the by-election result clearly demonstrated: Labour is hemorrhaging voters on multiple flanks, and the government's response is to shore up one flank whilst insisting the others don't exist.

Powell's coded alternative is worth examining. Her praise for Burnham focuses on voters who "see in him someone who is on their side, someone who is delivering those Labour values and those Labour policies." This isn't subtle. She's arguing for a more authentically left-wing positioning, grounded in local delivery and voter connection rather than Westminster calculation.

Burnham's strategic silence

The Greater Manchester mayor's refusal to comment on the result is perhaps the most eloquent response of all. Burnham has watched the party leadership block his candidacy, seen his assessment vindicated by a disastrous defeat, and chosen to say precisely nothing. For a politician who could legitimately claim to have been proved right, that silence reads as a statement about the wisdom of public criticism when you're hoping to remain viable for future leadership contests.

Burnham's popularity in Greater Manchester rests on a combination of visible delivery, regional pride, and a political positioning that manages to feel both authentically Labour and pragmatic. He opposed congestion charging when it became unpopular, fought for better buses and rail connectivity, and maintained a political identity distinct from Westminster. The NEC's decision to block the Merseyside-born mayor wasn't just about procedural concerns over triggering another by-election. It was about controlling the narrative and ensuring that no alternative power base could claim vindication.

Starmer's team now faces a more difficult environment than any new government should expect just months into a substantial parliamentary majority. The ideological tensions between Mahmood's rightward push on immigration and Powell's advocacy for "Labour values" suggest a cabinet that hasn't agreed on what it wants to be, let alone how to sell it to an increasingly sceptical electorate.

The next test will be whether this admission from Powell represents genuine internal debate or merely theatre designed to give the appearance of listening whilst the government ploughs ahead with its existing strategy. Given that the original decision went 8-1 against allowing local democracy to determine candidate selection, the odds aren't encouraging.